Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Section française de l'Internationale ouvrière | 703.6k | 22.8% |
Parti communiste français | 677.0k | 21.9% |
Rassemblement des gauches républicaines | 585.8k | 19.0% |
Rassemblement du peuple français | 579.1k | 18.8% |
Mouvement républicain populaire | 542.9k | 17.6% |
Why FR_OUE voters lean toward Caroline Olivier over Jeanne Leclerc. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Jeanne Leclerc's vote can be persuaded across to Caroline Olivier, and 20.0% of Caroline Olivier's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.7 pts of that movable slice.