Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Mouvement républicain populaire | 478.3k | 24.9% |
Section française de l'Internationale ouvrière | 477.1k | 24.9% |
Rassemblement des gauches républicaines | 413.4k | 21.5% |
Parti communiste français | 296.3k | 15.4% |
Rene BaronNPP Rassemblement du peuple français | 254.0k | 13.2% |
Why FR_EST voters lean toward Philippe Petit over Didier Clement. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Didier Clement's vote can be persuaded across to Philippe Petit, and 20.0% of Philippe Petit's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.4 pts of that movable slice.