Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Mouvement républicain populaire | 394.3k | 20.9% |
Section française de l'Internationale ouvrière | 392.6k | 20.9% |
Rassemblement des gauches républicaines | 379.4k | 20.2% |
Rene BaronNPP Rassemblement du peuple français | 364.3k | 19.4% |
Parti communiste français | 351.6k | 18.7% |
Why FR_EST voters lean toward Philippe Petit over Didier Clement. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Didier Clement's vote can be persuaded across to Philippe Petit, and 20.0% of Philippe Petit's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.4 pts of that movable slice.