Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Rebecca LaneNPP Ellinikos Synagermos | 436.7k | 44.8% |
Ethniki Proodeftiki Enosis Kentrou | 274.1k | 28.1% |
Paul ClarkNPP Eniaia Dimokratiki Aristera | 265.1k | 27.2% |
Why GR_ISL voters lean toward Rebecca Lane over David Phillips. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of David Phillips's vote can be persuaded across to Rebecca Lane, and 20.0% of Rebecca Lane's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.3 pts of that movable slice.