Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Labour | 65.6k | 30.7% |
Fianna Fáil | 54.5k | 25.5% |
Fianna Fáil | 50.1k | 23.4% |
Fine Gael | 43.7k | 20.4% |
Why COR voters lean toward Niall Kennedy over Patrick Murray. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Patrick Murray's vote can be persuaded across to Niall Kennedy, and 20.0% of Niall Kennedy's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.4 pts of that movable slice.