/DON
1958 DON Dáil Race · 12 seats
CompletedFinal Election Results
Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Final Results107.3k votes cast · 25 turns
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
 Ciara CaseyNPP Labour | 37.8k | 35.2% |
 Fianna Fáil | 27.7k | 25.9% |
 Fianna Fáil | 22.2k | 20.7% |
 Barry PhelanNPP Fine Gael | 19.6k | 18.3% |
Persuasion Drivers
DONWhy DON voters lean toward Eilis Collins over Barry Phelan. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Persuasion drivers (pts of the persuadable slice)
Candidate Support0.0 pts
Policy alignment+1.1 pts
Money0.0 pts
Incumbency0.0 pts
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Barry Phelan's vote can be persuaded across to Eilis Collins, and 20.0% of Eilis Collins's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.1 pts of that movable slice.
Election Trends
Auto-scaled
Ciara CaseyGarrett CunninghamEilis CollinsBarry Phelan