/DON
1954 DON Dáil Race · 12 seats
CompletedFinal Election Results
Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Final Results102.9k votes cast · 25 turns
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
 Barry PhelanNPP Fine Gael | 34.5k | 33.5% |
 Ciara CaseyNPP Labour | 28.9k | 28.1% |
 Fianna Fáil | 19.9k | 19.4% |
 Fianna Fáil | 19.6k | 19.0% |
Persuasion Drivers
DONWhy DON voters lean toward Eilis Collins over Barry Phelan. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Persuasion drivers (pts of the persuadable slice)
Candidate Support0.0 pts
Policy alignment+1.1 pts
Money0.0 pts
Incumbency0.0 pts
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Barry Phelan's vote can be persuaded across to Eilis Collins, and 20.0% of Eilis Collins's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.1 pts of that movable slice.
Election Trends
Auto-scaled
Barry PhelanCiara CaseyGarrett CunninghamEilis Collins