Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Fianna Fáil | 113.1k | 48.8% |
Labour | 78.6k | 33.9% |
Enda DalyNPP Fine Gael | 40.1k | 17.3% |
Why COR voters lean toward Eoin Sullivan over Enda Daly. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Enda Daly's vote can be persuaded across to Eoin Sullivan, and 20.0% of Eoin Sullivan's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.2 pts of that movable slice.