Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Fianna Fáil | 59.7k | 52.4% |
Labour | 33.3k | 29.2% |
Brian MahonyNPP Fine Gael | 21.0k | 18.5% |
Why WEX voters lean toward Oisin Carroll over Brian Mahony. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Brian Mahony's vote can be persuaded across to Oisin Carroll, and 20.0% of Oisin Carroll's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.0 pts of that movable slice.