Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Fianna Fáil | 41.6k | 35.4% |
Brian MahonyNPP Fine Gael | 41.0k | 35.0% |
Labour | 34.7k | 29.6% |
Why WEX voters lean toward Brian Mahony over Caitriona Burke. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Caitriona Burke's vote can be persuaded across to Brian Mahony, and 20.0% of Brian Mahony's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.8 pts of that movable slice.