Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Cathal DoyleNPP Fianna Fáil | 5.6k | 23.4% |
Ruairi QuinnNPP Fianna Fáil | 5.3k | 22.1% |
Labour | 4.0k | 16.8% |
Maeve MooneyNPP Labour | 3.9k | 16.1% |
Enda DalyNPP Fine Gael | 2.8k | 11.6% |
Eoin MurphyNPP Fine Gael | 2.4k | 10.1% |
Why COR voters lean toward Cathal Doyle over Enda Daly. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Enda Daly's vote can be persuaded across to Cathal Doyle, and 20.0% of Cathal Doyle's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.8 pts of that movable slice.