Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Turnout starts with this electorate's usual rate, then responds to the race and campaign.
25 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 7,376 votes buys one seat; 3 of the 25 were settled on largest remainder.
Why COR voters lean toward Cillian Hogan over Paul Connolly. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Paul Connolly's vote can be persuaded across to Cillian Hogan, and 20.0% of Cillian Hogan's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.0 pts of that movable slice.