Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Ruairi QuinnNPP Fianna Fáil | 114.8k | 61.9% |
Maeve MooneyNPP Labour | 39.1k | 21.1% |
Eoin MurphyNPP Fine Gael | 31.5k | 17.0% |
Why COR voters lean toward Eoin Murphy over Ruairi Quinn. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Ruairi Quinn's vote can be persuaded across to Eoin Murphy, and 20.0% of Eoin Murphy's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.3 pts of that movable slice.