Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Cathal DoyleNPP Fianna Fáil | 11.3k | 23.5% |
Ruairi QuinnNPP Fianna Fáil | 10.5k | 21.9% |
Labour | 8.2k | 17.0% |
Maeve MooneyNPP Labour | 7.7k | 16.0% |
Enda DalyNPP Fine Gael | 5.5k | 11.5% |
Eoin MurphyNPP Fine Gael | 4.9k | 10.1% |
Why COR voters lean toward Cathal Doyle over Eoin Sullivan. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Eoin Sullivan's vote can be persuaded across to Cathal Doyle, and 20.0% of Cathal Doyle's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.7 pts of that movable slice.