Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Turnout starts with this electorate's usual rate, then responds to the race and campaign.
26 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 4,363 votes buys one seat; 4 of the 26 were settled on largest remainder.
Why KIL voters lean toward Tadhg Moore over Ciara Fitzgerald. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Ciara Fitzgerald's vote can be persuaded across to Tadhg Moore, and 20.0% of Tadhg Moore's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.8 pts of that movable slice.