Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Fianna Fáil | 48.6k | 36.5% |
Fine Gael | 43.0k | 32.3% |
Labour | 41.6k | 31.2% |
Why LIM voters lean toward Maeve McLoughlin over Declan O'Neill. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Declan O'Neill's vote can be persuaded across to Maeve McLoughlin, and 20.0% of Maeve McLoughlin's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.6 pts of that movable slice.