/MID
1955 MID Local Council Race · 12 seats
CompletedFinal Election Results
Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Final Results53.1k votes cast · 24 turns
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
 James HickeyNPP Fianna Fáil | 19.0k | 35.9% |
 Aoife PhelanNPP Labour | 14.9k | 28.1% |
 Fine Gael | 9.6k | 18.2% |
 Fine Gael | 9.5k | 17.8% |
Persuasion Drivers
MIDWhy MID voters lean toward James Hickey over Mark Gallagher. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Persuasion drivers (pts of the persuadable slice)
Candidate Support0.0 pts
Policy alignment+0.4 pts
Money0.0 pts
Incumbency0.0 pts
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Mark Gallagher's vote can be persuaded across to James Hickey, and 20.0% of James Hickey's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.4 pts of that movable slice.
Election Trends
Auto-scaled
James HickeyAoife PhelanMark GallagherCillian McKenna