Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Democrazia Cristiana | 796.5k | 27.0% |
Sergio AmatoNPP Partito Socialista Italiano | 632.8k | 21.5% |
Partito Comunista Italiano | 557.2k | 18.9% |
Partito Repubblicano Italiano | 533.2k | 18.1% |
Movimento Sociale Italiano | 426.4k | 14.5% |
Why IT_CAM voters lean toward Sergio Amato over Roberto Santoro. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Roberto Santoro's vote can be persuaded across to Sergio Amato, and 20.0% of Sergio Amato's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.7 pts of that movable slice.