Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Democrazia Cristiana | 864.5k | 28.8% |
Movimento Sociale Italiano | 589.6k | 19.6% |
Sergio AmatoNPP Partito Socialista Italiano | 565.3k | 18.8% |
Partito Comunista Italiano | 530.9k | 17.7% |
Partito Repubblicano Italiano | 453.2k | 15.1% |
Why IT_CAM voters lean toward Alessandro Palumbo over Domenico Serra. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Domenico Serra's vote can be persuaded across to Alessandro Palumbo, and 20.0% of Alessandro Palumbo's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.5 pts of that movable slice.