Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Democrazia Cristiana | 589.0k | 26.3% |
Partito Socialista Italiano | 499.4k | 22.3% |
Partito Comunista Italiano | 423.6k | 18.9% |
Partito Repubblicano Italiano | 386.9k | 17.3% |
Movimento Sociale Italiano | 339.4k | 15.2% |
Why IT_LAZ voters lean toward Michela Barbieri over Federica De Luca. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Federica De Luca's vote can be persuaded across to Michela Barbieri, and 20.0% of Michela Barbieri's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.4 pts of that movable slice.