Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Democrazia Cristiana | 645.4k | 28.7% |
Movimento Sociale Italiano | 464.4k | 20.7% |
Partito Socialista Italiano | 422.4k | 18.8% |
Partito Repubblicano Italiano | 364.9k | 16.3% |
Partito Comunista Italiano | 348.1k | 15.5% |
Why IT_LAZ voters lean toward Roberta Gallo over Daniela Gallo. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Daniela Gallo's vote can be persuaded across to Roberta Gallo, and 20.0% of Roberta Gallo's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.9 pts of that movable slice.