Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Democrazia Cristiana | 1.36M | 28.8% |
Partito Socialista Italiano | 1.05M | 22.1% |
Franca RussoNPP Partito Comunista Italiano | 890.4k | 18.8% |
Movimento Sociale Italiano | 835.7k | 17.6% |
Partito Repubblicano Italiano | 603.3k | 12.7% |
Why IT_NE voters lean toward Federico Rossi over Riccardo Vitale. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Riccardo Vitale's vote can be persuaded across to Federico Rossi, and 20.0% of Federico Rossi's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.4 pts of that movable slice.