Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Democrazia Cristiana | 1.24M | 25.5% |
Partito Socialista Italiano | 1.20M | 24.6% |
Franca RussoNPP Partito Comunista Italiano | 942.1k | 19.3% |
Movimento Sociale Italiano | 840.5k | 17.2% |
Partito Repubblicano Italiano | 653.1k | 13.4% |
Why IT_NE voters lean toward Fulvio Lombardo over Franca Russo. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Franca Russo's vote can be persuaded across to Fulvio Lombardo, and 20.0% of Fulvio Lombardo's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.9 pts of that movable slice.