Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Democrazia Cristiana | 1.79M | 27.4% |
Partito Socialista Italiano | 1.56M | 23.9% |
Simone RizziNPP Movimento Sociale Italiano | 1.37M | 21.0% |
Partito Comunista Italiano | 900.5k | 13.8% |
Partito Repubblicano Italiano | 898.9k | 13.8% |
Why IT_NW voters lean toward Emanuele Palumbo over Simone Rizzi. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Simone Rizzi's vote can be persuaded across to Emanuele Palumbo, and 20.0% of Emanuele Palumbo's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.2 pts of that movable slice.