Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Democrazia Cristiana | 1.66M | 25.0% |
Partito Socialista Italiano | 1.47M | 22.1% |
Simone RizziNPP Movimento Sociale Italiano | 1.32M | 19.8% |
Partito Comunista Italiano | 1.12M | 16.8% |
Partito Repubblicano Italiano | 1.09M | 16.4% |
Why IT_NW voters lean toward Umberto Gallo over Angelo Santoro. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Angelo Santoro's vote can be persuaded across to Umberto Gallo, and 20.0% of Umberto Gallo's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.3 pts of that movable slice.