Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Democrazia Cristiana | 199.0k | 26.3% |
Partito Socialista Italiano | 163.4k | 21.6% |
Partito Comunista Italiano | 149.3k | 19.7% |
Partito Repubblicano Italiano | 131.7k | 17.4% |
Movimento Sociale Italiano | 113.9k | 15.0% |
Why IT_SAR voters lean toward Claudio Monti over Rita D'Angelo. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Rita D'Angelo's vote can be persuaded across to Claudio Monti, and 20.0% of Claudio Monti's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.2 pts of that movable slice.