Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Democrazia Cristiana | 187.0k | 24.4% |
Partito Repubblicano Italiano | 177.3k | 23.2% |
Partito Socialista Italiano | 151.7k | 19.8% |
Movimento Sociale Italiano | 145.6k | 19.0% |
Partito Comunista Italiano | 103.9k | 13.6% |
Why IT_SAR voters lean toward Alberto Basile over Gabriele Romano. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Gabriele Romano's vote can be persuaded across to Alberto Basile, and 20.0% of Alberto Basile's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.8 pts of that movable slice.