Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Democrazia Cristiana | 739.4k | 27.6% |
Guido FarinaNPP Partito Repubblicano Italiano | 583.6k | 21.8% |
Fabio MontiNPP Partito Socialista Italiano | 496.0k | 18.5% |
Movimento Sociale Italiano | 450.5k | 16.8% |
Partito Comunista Italiano | 409.0k | 15.3% |
Why IT_SIC voters lean toward Fabio Monti over Filippo Conte. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Filippo Conte's vote can be persuaded across to Fabio Monti, and 20.0% of Fabio Monti's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.2 pts of that movable slice.