Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Democrazia Cristiana | 656.5k | 24.3% |
Guido FarinaNPP Partito Repubblicano Italiano | 575.8k | 21.3% |
Movimento Sociale Italiano | 549.3k | 20.3% |
Fabio MontiNPP Partito Socialista Italiano | 473.0k | 17.5% |
Partito Comunista Italiano | 449.2k | 16.6% |
Why IT_SIC voters lean toward Vincenzo Martini over Claudia Farina. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Claudia Farina's vote can be persuaded across to Vincenzo Martini, and 20.0% of Vincenzo Martini's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.7 pts of that movable slice.