Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Democrazia Cristiana | 877.4k | 25.5% |
Partito Repubblicano Italiano | 733.1k | 21.3% |
Serena PirasNPP Partito Socialista Italiano | 659.7k | 19.1% |
Movimento Sociale Italiano | 629.1k | 18.3% |
Partito Comunista Italiano | 545.8k | 15.8% |
Why IT_TUS voters lean toward Serena Piras over Emanuela Bianco. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Emanuela Bianco's vote can be persuaded across to Serena Piras, and 20.0% of Serena Piras's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.0 pts of that movable slice.