Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Democrazia Cristiana | 920.9k | 26.8% |
Serena PirasNPP Partito Socialista Italiano | 655.6k | 19.1% |
Partito Repubblicano Italiano | 649.6k | 18.9% |
Movimento Sociale Italiano | 612.3k | 17.8% |
Partito Comunista Italiano | 598.6k | 17.4% |
Why IT_TUS voters lean toward Lucia Ferrari over Enrico Giordano. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Enrico Giordano's vote can be persuaded across to Lucia Ferrari, and 20.0% of Lucia Ferrari's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.8 pts of that movable slice.