Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Turnout starts with this electorate's usual rate, then responds to the race and campaign.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Osamu Ono holds 54.8% against 45.2% for the nearest rival.
Why TOH voters lean toward Osamu Ono over Ryo Fukuda. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Ryo Fukuda's vote can be persuaded across to Osamu Ono, and 20.0% of Osamu Ono's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -1.8 pts of that movable slice.