Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Northern People's Congress | 673.8k | 44.5% |
National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons | 445.0k | 29.4% |
Action Group | 395.9k | 26.1% |
Why NORTH_WEST voters lean toward Damilola Igwe over Iyabo Fadahunsi. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Iyabo Fadahunsi's vote can be persuaded across to Damilola Igwe, and 20.0% of Damilola Igwe's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.7 pts of that movable slice.