Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Northern People's Congress | 652.7k | 43.0% |
Chuka AdamuNPP National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons | 490.0k | 32.3% |
Action Group | 375.1k | 24.7% |
Why NORTH_WEST voters lean toward Chuka Adamu over Yetunde Onyeka. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Yetunde Onyeka's vote can be persuaded across to Chuka Adamu, and 20.0% of Chuka Adamu's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.4 pts of that movable slice.