Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Northern People's Congress | 627.1k | 40.3% |
Action Group | 571.7k | 36.8% |
National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons | 356.6k | 22.9% |
Why NORTH_WEST voters lean toward Rakiya Mohammed over Yetunde Onyeka. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Yetunde Onyeka's vote can be persuaded across to Rakiya Mohammed, and 20.0% of Rakiya Mohammed's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.2 pts of that movable slice.