Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons | 207.8k | 39.1% |
Action Group | 163.1k | 30.7% |
Patrick SaniNPP Northern People's Congress | 160.5k | 30.2% |
Why SOUTH_SOUTH voters lean toward Chukwuemeka Nnamdi over Onyeka Adebowale. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Onyeka Adebowale's vote can be persuaded across to Chukwuemeka Nnamdi, and 20.0% of Chukwuemeka Nnamdi's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.