Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Aminata Okonkwo took 55.7% against 44.3% for the nearest rival.
Why SOUTH_WEST voters lean toward Aminata Okonkwo over Suleiman Tinubu. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Suleiman Tinubu's vote can be persuaded across to Aminata Okonkwo, and 20.0% of Aminata Okonkwo's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.2 pts of that movable slice.