Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Aminata Okonkwo took 62.9% against 37.1% for the nearest rival.
Why SOUTH_WEST voters lean toward Sani Usman over Aminata Okonkwo. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Aminata Okonkwo's vote can be persuaded across to Sani Usman, and 20.0% of Sani Usman's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.4 pts of that movable slice.