Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
Northern People's Congress | 281.1k | 43.9% | 7 |
Action Group | 182.2k | 28.5% | 5 |
National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons | 176.5k | 27.6% | 4 |
Why NORTH_EAST voters lean toward Kelechi Sanwoolu over Umar Salisu. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Umar Salisu's vote can be persuaded across to Kelechi Sanwoolu, and 20.0% of Kelechi Sanwoolu's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.4 pts of that movable slice.