Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons | 500.9k | 45.2% | 13 |
Action Group | 412.6k | 37.2% | 10 |
Adaeze ColeNPP Northern People's Congress | 195.4k | 17.6% | 0 |
Why SOUTH_EAST voters lean toward Sani Macaulay over Goodluck George. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Goodluck George's vote can be persuaded across to Sani Macaulay, and 20.0% of Sani Macaulay's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.0 pts of that movable slice.