Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons | 438.3k | 39.1% | 9 |
Action Group | 375.7k | 33.6% | 8 |
Northern People's Congress | 305.6k | 27.3% | 6 |
Why SOUTH_EAST voters lean toward Sani Macaulay over Goodluck George. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Goodluck George's vote can be persuaded across to Sani Macaulay, and 20.0% of Sani Macaulay's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.0 pts of that movable slice.