Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
21 seats, apportioned by share of 6,058,293 votes cast.
Why NORTH_WEST voters lean toward Chidi Adeleke over Safiya Macaulay. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Safiya Macaulay's vote can be persuaded across to Chidi Adeleke, and 20.0% of Chidi Adeleke's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.0 pts of that movable slice.