Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
195 seats, apportioned by share of 6,396,776 votes cast.
Why VOL voters lean toward Ostap Kovalenko over Margarita Baranova. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Margarita Baranova's vote can be persuaded across to Ostap Kovalenko, and 20.0% of Ostap Kovalenko's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.8 pts of that movable slice.