Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Bondeförbundet | 107.8k | 25.6% |
Rolf WallinNPP Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 105.7k | 25.2% |
Högerpartiet | 76.9k | 18.3% |
Folkpartiet | 71.1k | 16.9% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 58.9k | 14.0% |
Why SE_EAS voters lean toward Olof Lundqvist over Oskar Sjoberg. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Oskar Sjoberg's vote can be persuaded across to Olof Lundqvist, and 20.0% of Olof Lundqvist's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.5 pts of that movable slice.