Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
38 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 16,167 votes buys one seat; 5 of the 38 were settled on largest remainder.
Why SE_EAS voters lean toward Marcus Larsson over Jonas Eklund. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Jonas Eklund's vote can be persuaded across to Marcus Larsson, and 20.0% of Marcus Larsson's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.2 pts of that movable slice.