Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Högerpartiet | 105.0k | 22.6% |
Bondeförbundet | 101.4k | 21.9% |
Folkpartiet | 91.3k | 19.7% |
Rolf WallinNPP Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 85.6k | 18.5% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 80.2k | 17.3% |
Why SE_EAS voters lean toward Rolf Wallin over Anders Sundstrom. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Anders Sundstrom's vote can be persuaded across to Rolf Wallin, and 20.0% of Rolf Wallin's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.