Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Bondeförbundet | 8.9k | 24.9% |
Rolf WallinNPP Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 8.0k | 22.4% |
Högerpartiet | 7.3k | 20.3% |
Folkpartiet | 6.4k | 17.8% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 5.2k | 14.6% |
Why SE_EAS voters lean toward Rolf Wallin over Oskar Sjoberg. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Oskar Sjoberg's vote can be persuaded across to Rolf Wallin, and 20.0% of Rolf Wallin's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.1 pts of that movable slice.