Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 138.7k | 23.9% |
Bondeförbundet | 134.5k | 23.2% |
Folkpartiet | 118.8k | 20.5% |
Högerpartiet | 94.3k | 16.3% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 93.3k | 16.1% |
Why SE_GOT voters lean toward Christer Carlsson over Thomas Larsson. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Thomas Larsson's vote can be persuaded across to Christer Carlsson, and 20.0% of Christer Carlsson's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.4 pts of that movable slice.