Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Bondeförbundet | 144.6k | 22.5% |
Högerpartiet | 142.7k | 22.2% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 134.9k | 21.0% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 111.7k | 17.4% |
Folkpartiet | 108.8k | 16.9% |
Why SE_GOT voters lean toward Malin Sundberg over Karin Hellstrom. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Karin Hellstrom's vote can be persuaded across to Malin Sundberg, and 20.0% of Malin Sundberg's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.3 pts of that movable slice.