Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 13.1k | 26.6% |
Bondeförbundet | 11.0k | 22.3% |
Folkpartiet | 9.5k | 19.2% |
Högerpartiet | 8.0k | 16.1% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 7.8k | 15.9% |
Why SE_GOT voters lean toward Thomas Larsson over Malin Sundberg. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Malin Sundberg's vote can be persuaded across to Thomas Larsson, and 20.0% of Thomas Larsson's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.7 pts of that movable slice.