Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 190.0k | 25.2% |
Bondeförbundet | 169.0k | 22.4% |
Folkpartiet | 163.1k | 21.6% |
Högerpartiet | 126.9k | 16.8% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 106.4k | 14.1% |
Why SE_NOR voters lean toward Birgitta Sundstrom over Sture Nordstrom. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Sture Nordstrom's vote can be persuaded across to Birgitta Sundstrom, and 20.0% of Birgitta Sundstrom's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.3 pts of that movable slice.