Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Högerpartiet | 189.0k | 22.4% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 179.0k | 21.2% |
Bondeförbundet | 175.1k | 20.8% |
Folkpartiet | 165.2k | 19.6% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 135.4k | 16.0% |
Why SE_NOR voters lean toward Rolf Holmberg over Camilla Bergstrom. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Camilla Bergstrom's vote can be persuaded across to Rolf Holmberg, and 20.0% of Rolf Holmberg's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.0 pts of that movable slice.